Anonymous Patron writes “eGov monitor says Lynne Brindley, Chief Executive of the British Library, today predicted a switch from print to digital publishing by the year 2020.
“Most people are aware that a national switch to digital broadcasting is expected by the end of this decade. Less well known is the fact that a similar trend is underway in the world of publishing: a study by EPS , commissioned by the Library, projects that, by the year 2020, 40% of UK research monographs will be available in electronic format only, while a further 50% will be produced in both print and digital. A mere 10% of new titles will be available in print alone by 2020.”
The Future – Not What It Used To Be
“A mere 10% of new titles will be available in print alone by 2020.”
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HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!
The Death Of Print and the Paperless Office have been 10-15 years from now for the pat 25 years, usually scheduled for just after the mass retirement of librarians opening up new opportunities for grads (usually five years from now)…….
Seriously, does ANYONE see ANY indication the publication of books on paper is slowing down? Not I…….
Re: does ANYONE see ANY indication…
Well, yes, and no. A record 195,000 new books came out in 2004 BUT, the actual number of books sold in 2004 dropped by 40 million from the previous year. They predict better sales for 2005, but an essentially flat market after. This all from Bowker.
So there’s that. I think “The Death Of Print” and “The Paperless Office” are two seperate issues, and I’ll just focus on the former, since it effects libraries.
So what’s been holding back “The Death Of Print”? I think technology, so far we haven’t had a good ebook, or good epaper. From what I’ve read about the Sony EBR-1000 Librie eBook reader we may have the first decent reader. One Review. So if it’s 2005 and we now finally have a decent reader that is “good enough” imagine what we’ll have in 2020.
So technology has finally caught up.
The second reason Print hasn’t Died yet is social. Older people probably aren’t rushing to replace all that printed stuff with a single ebook, but I’d guess younger people will have no problem replacing much of their paper stuff with electronic.
Once we have really good readers I think sales of printed books will drop quite fast.
There’s other stuff that comes into play, DRM, Copyright, cost, logevity, and all kinds of things that people like Walt Crawford could write about better than I can.
So, to make a long answer short, yes I think we may be starting to see an indication the publication of books on paper is slowing down, if not now, very soon.
And I for one welcome the mass retirement of librarians (for a myriad of reasons).
Re:The Future – Not What It Used To Be
China has a shortage of trees.
“UK research monographs”
Research monographs are a small and specialized portion of book publishing.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the prediction was reasonably on the money. (I’m not saying I agree with it–I don’t know enough to agree or disagree.) Increasingly, research monographs don’t have large enough markets to justify traditional printing–and in many fields, a good monograph may require material that won’t fit in print.
Does this indicate the general Death o’ Print? Not really.
I hate the phrase “Available in PDF Only”…
It is cheaper to make everything available in electronic format and make the customer absorb the cost of printing it out on their home or office printer. Book publishers have figured this out. Notice that all our vendors no longer give out printed documentation with their products and services? Everything is a downloadable PDF we have to print out and bind ourselves. Just another cost they can push over to us. Just because it won’t be “published” in print doesn’t mean it won’t eventually end up being printed. Many people are more comfortable with reading from paper, so now they are going to have to use their own equipment and paper to do so. So the publishers and distributers no longer have to incure the costs of printing, paper, shipping, returns, etc. It’s all about money…