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>>it's equally true that most Big Six books never earn out their advances.

The following post argues against this point.

The Myth of the Unearned Advance
http://stevelaube.com/the-myth-of-the-unearned-advance/

Excerpt: A NY Times essay a couple years ago casually claimed “the fact that 7 out of 10 titles do not earn back their advance.” Of course they did not cite a source for that “fact.” But I have seen it quoted so often is must be true! (and it isn’t.) The implication then is that a book isn’t profitable if it doesn’t earn out its advance. The publisher overpaid and has lost money. The author is the happy camper who is counting their cash gleefully celebrating the failure of their publisher to project sales correctly.