Lee Hadden writes " There is an interesting article in the American Scientist that
discusses predictions made in 1986 about the future of science, and what
became true and what did not over the next 17 years. There is some
interesting speculation about publishing and libraries- it is seldom done
when some one makes predictions that they re-visit their ideas and show
what came true and what did not.
See: American Scientist, Volume 91, May-June 2003, pages 250-253.
"Science in 2006, Revisited: From grid computing to genomics, the science
fiction of 1986 is fast becoming science fact. There remains equal reward
in the signal and in the noise." By Lewis M. Branscomb
"On one point I was actually too pessimistic (although literally
accurate) in predicting that by 2006 automatic language translation would
"remain incompletely solved." Finally, I correctly predicted the confusion
that would engulf tenure and promotion committees in their attempt to
define publication so they could decide who should perish. Even in 1986 it
was clear that authors would become publishers, and scientists would not
wait to learn the latest research advances until the print materials
arrived in the snail mail."
Read more about it at:
And the original 1986 American Scientist article